PAGOH (Nov 15): Among the three candidates contesting for the Pagoh parliamentary seat in the 15th general election (GE15), Pakatan Harapan (PH)’s candidate Iskandar Shah is the only newbie or an unknown candidate who had never been in national politics.

Who exactly is Iskandar, and how does he intend to win Pagoh, a constituency that has been held by incumbent Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin since 1978, except for two terms between 1986 and 1995, when he was the Menteri Besar of Johor?

Another candidate for the seat is Barisan Nasional (BN)’s Datuk Seri Razali Ibrahim, the holder of the neighbouring Muar constituency between 2004 and 2018.

“It is not easy, but it is not impossible,” Iskandar told The Edge when met at his family’s residence here on Nov 12.

Iskandar positions himself as a political outsider, as he only became a member of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) this year as well, to vote for Rafizi Ramli in the latter’s bid to make a comeback to the party’s top leadership.

Iskandar stepped up when Rafizi offered opportunities for any PKR members who wish to become “good candidates” to help the PH coalition win seats.

“I was just another voter back in 2018. So, my advantage is that I don’t have political baggage that my opponents could use to attack me. I was not there when PH became the government and the subsequent ‘Sheraton Move’.

“It was the ‘Sheraton Move’ that brought me into politics. How can someone — who is here because of the political manoeuvre — want the people of Pagoh to vote for him again?” he asked.

Iskandar is a geophysicist with international oil and gas companies, having served abroad in Norway and in Miri. Born in Pagoh but raised in the nearby constituency of Ledang, he felt that if he were to contest in GE15, these are the seats that he could be in.

There are two reasons underlying his decision to contest in GE15 — him being a local in these two constituencies, as well as the “numbers”, he said.

Looking at the numbers in Pagoh over the last two general elections, Iskandar argued that Muhyiddin — despite being a national leader and having a big name here — could only bring about 6,000 votes over to him in GE14, from GE13.

In GE14, Muhyiddin — then standing under the PH banner — received 23,558 votes, compared with BN’s 16,631 votes. In the 2013 GE, Muhyiddin — then standing under the BN banner — received 26,274 votes.

This shows that votes for BN in Pagoh fell by at least 9,643 votes in GE14, without accounting for new voters that were eligible to vote for the first time then. Another candidate in GE14 from Parti Islam Se-Malaysia, received 2,483 votes.

“There are 20,000 people who were actually PH voters, who voted for him (Muhyiddin), that are actually frustrated by the move. His loyalist — 6,000 votes — may be fine with whatever he did. But about 15,000 to 20,000 voters that voted for him in the last GE were frustrated.

“These people, you can see that in the Johor state election, a lot of them did not go out to vote. Even Saluran 1 had a lot of reduction in numbers because they lost hope in democracy,” Iskandar said.

Iskandar is also banking on young voters who make up the bulk of voters in Pagoh. According to data from the Election Commission (EC), 45,596 or 65.2% of the 69,939 voters in Pagoh are in the age range of between 18 and 49.

These voters are those who are more open to the idea of change, rather than their older cohorts, said Iskandar. Beyond the numbers, he is offering a change in Pagoh.

“Yes, you can say that Razali (Ibrahim, the BN candidate) also can be another change in Pagoh, but the true change is me, because it is essentially a change from a non-local to a pure local; from senior people to a much younger blood; and change from true politicians to a professional.

“If you look at the last GE, the wave of change is there and we can start to see it now, even in the first week. I am actually aligned with that theme,” said Iskandar.

Both Muhyiddin and Razali hailed from the nearby constituency of Muar, where both of them are registered as voters.

Iskandar said the young people in Pagoh can build their future here, based on the existing advantages. For example, he is proposing for Pagoh to stay as a rural to semi-urban constituency, in contrast to Muhyiddin’s vision of industrialising the area, judging from the big developments here over the years.

Iskandar argued that the industrialisation of Pagoh has brought some negative impact. For example, the Bandar Universiti Pagoh that is currently being built by Sime Darby Bhd has caused property prices here to skyrocket, with terrace houses priced at around RM500,000 to RM600,000.

He also alleged that the developments had caused some villages to be flooded whenever there is a heavy downpour. Due to the drainage system blockage, the floods have even become recurring occurrences during the recent monsoon season.

While there is a chance for Iskandar to cause a huge upset in Pagoh, there is still considerable advantage for Muhyiddin as an incumbent of the constituency. The answer will only be made known by the evening of Nov 19 (GE15 polling day).

Get our comprehensive GE15 coverage here.