KUALA LUMPUR (April 10): The war in Ukraine has triggered an alarming global surge in government controls on the export of food, said World Bank President David Malpass.

In a blog post on Friday (April 8), he said it is critical for policymakers to halt the trend, which is making a global food crisis more likely.

He said in the space of a few weeks, the number of countries slapping on food-export restrictions jumped by 25%, bringing the total number of countries to 35.

Malpass said food crises are bad for everyone, but they are devastating for the poorest and most vulnerable people.

He said this is because of two reasons.

“First, the world’s poorest countries tend to be food-importing countries.

“Second, food accounts for at least half of total expenditures of households in low-income countries,” he said.

Malpass said export and import controls currently encompass about 21% of world trade in wheat, for example — well below the 74% share at the peak of the 2008-2011 crisis. 

He said conditions are ripe for a retaliatory cycle in which the scale of restrictions could grow rapidly.

He said trade measures are already having a visible effect on food prices.

He said Russia has imposed restrictions on wheat exports to countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union.

Malpass said smaller exporters, such as Serbia and North Macedonia, have also imposed restrictions.

“So have food-importing countries such as Egypt, which imports 80% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine and has been worried about re-exports.

“These measures alone cover 16% of world trade and have been responsible for a seven-percentage-point increase in world wheat prices.

“That amounts to about one-sixth of the overall price surge,” he said.

Malpass said the surge in trade interventions in March could be a sign of supply disruptions ahead.

He said food export restrictions imposed in March were nearly double of the number in the two preceding months.

He said restrictive export measures reduce global supply, causing higher prices.

“That triggers new export restrictions to contain domestic price pressures, generating a “multiplier effect” on international prices.

“If any of the top five exporters of wheat were to ban exports, the cumulative effect of these measures would be to increase the world price by at least 13% — and much more if others react,” he said.

Malpass said a global food crisis is by no means inevitable.

“Despite the extraordinary rise in food prices recently, global stocks of the three major staples — rice, wheat, and maize — remain high by historical standards.

“The G7 took an important step recently by pledging not to impose food-export bans and to use “all instruments and funding mechanisms” to bolster global food security.

“Maintaining global flows of food, especially in a time of rising economic and geopolitical stress — should be a minimum requirement for policymakers everywhere, the equivalent of the do-no-harm rule,” he said.