Ben Suffian, director of programmes, and Hazman Hamid, director of operations, talks to TheEdgeMalaysia.com about hot political topics of the day.

Hear their views on the Perak situation

Hear their views on East Malaysia

The Edge Malaysia (TEM): Could you give a general overview of how voter sentiment is like today, compared to before March 8, compared to one year ago, compared to five years ago? How has the voter mood swung in recent years?

Ben: I think the voter mood is clearly defined by the urban/rural divide. I think that is where stuff like New Media plays an important role; where in the urban areas, where Internet access is very, very high, voters, particularly young ones, get their alternative information very quickly and that shapes their minds.

So that is very clear urban/rural divide; there is a very strong resemblance between Malay, Chinese as well as Indian voters in the urban areas in sharing the same kind of sentiments on the one hand; and then the predominantly Malay or even some Chinese rural voters behaving more conservatively, looking at the political situation.

Secondly is age, there is a clear dichotomy between voters who are above the age of 35 or 40 years old and those below it. A very clear, sharp divide. If you look at current issues right now—Perak, for example, and looking at Malay voters, in general we can say – well, we have a poll out today – that Malays are split, half and half, because of how (they) view the issue.

But if you cut across by age, you will see clearly that below 40 they have one point of view; above 40 they have a different inclination altogether. So, this will feed into the electoral process, so the numbers may look about even but you will see that the people who are attending these guys’ ceramah, predominantly below 35, and the other one is in their 50s, and that’s where the trend is right now. People are less afraid to voice out their views.

TEM: So can we safely, generally, say that older people are more conservative, younger people more liberal?

B: Yes and no, the general tendency is there, but there are differences, because when we talk about rural and conservative then you’ve got to talk about some people being more politically liberal now, but socially more conservative.

TEM: Let's put in terms of pro-government and pro-opposition?

B:  In terms of politics then yes, the younger generation are more anti-establishment, it’s quite clear. You can see this in the election results as well.

H: And I think another good example as well is the Indian respondents; before Hindraf we could see that probably 70% of them are pro-BN or pro-government, pro-establishment, but after Hindraf we could see the numbers drastically move. 

TEM: So is it the opposite now, 70% (anti-government?)

B & Hazman: (agreeing) 180 degree turn in the two weeks.

TEM: What about the Chinese? Have their sentiments shifted since March 8?

B: Not quite, we don’t see a shifting back to BN. I think there are a lot of issues that are still unsettled. The economy, the perception of treatment, governance issues...

TEM: Are they more anti-government now?

B: I think it’s about the same. I think a lot of people are looking at what kind of signals the impending administration is going to give them. If they feel that the administration of Najib is going to be serious about fighting graft, serious about making things more efficient, making sure that the economic stimulus really gets down to people that really deserve it, then I think sentiments will move in the government’s favour.

TEM: I think the big question on a lot of people’s minds is the Malay vote really very split?

B: It is, nationally, I would imagine that it is so. But when you look at local situations, Perak now is interesting, it looks split. To be honest and to be fair, it looks split. But I think if there is a campaign in a place like Bukit Gantang, and the campaign is developing with rhetorics from both sides, you will see it moving to one side, or another.

But my inclination is to say that it will go in favour of the opposition, largely because of the weight of young voters and their access to information. There have been other guys like Abu Hassan in UM that has done media studies and so on where he’s seen young voters increasingly getting information from independent sources, so you can’t really guarantee how they’re going to think at the ballot box; they might just go opposition. So you have that going on, so the tendency is split, but it’s a very narrow margin and I think this is how we’re going to see politics be for the next couple of years until a new direction emerges.

B: Well, the poll basically tells us that people in general, Perakians, they want elections, to solve the problem. I think not an insignificant number of people also felt that the Palace should have allowed for state assembly to be dissolved. But at the same time, when we look at it in detail, there are differences between communities.

I think Malays are split in this sense between deferring to the Palace or arguing in favour of more democratic rights for the people. So we had that going on, but because Perak is such an interesting state, in the sense that in terms of demographics, it’s 54% Malay, but electorally Malay voters comprise the minority, only 46%. So their views only count for only about half of the electorate. So when it comes to an election it looks like the views of non-Malays will weigh heavily and make it more in favour of having elections and less in favour of the ruling government.

B: Sabah has a slightly higher tendency to be...  voters there have a slightly higher tendency to be more inclined to consider the opposition, compared to Sarawak, largely because of history. They have voted opposition before and so on, and if you look at the March 8 election results, the popular vote for the BN in Sabah is not very high, I think in the 50s.

But in Sarawak, there is a totally different dynamic, I think completely split between urban areas and rural areas. In the urban areas, we find that predominantly Chinese (voters) are very concerned about what’s going on and largely not happy with the BN government, but if you go in the rural areas, development politics still play an important factor in voters making up their minds. So many voters do not see the presence of the opposition parties to be able to say that they will make a change and so on. And it’s massively difficult to run a campaign in Sarawak because of the logistics.

TEM: What is the typical Malaysian voter like today? Is there such a thing?

B: The typical Malaysian voter will still vote for the political party instead of the candidate.

H: The party comes first.

B: I think they have a much more acute sense of what’s going on, much more better informed as compared to four years ago, increasingly cynical about government and politicians in general, not just the government but also the opposition. The young Malaysian voter, those who are going to be in large numbers, are more cynical, less pro-establishment and at the same time, large numbers of them are also less concerned or not concerned with politics at all. So we have a huge pool of young people, but only about half of them are registered, the rest don’t even bother.

H: They don’t trust the mainstream media.

TEM: In terms of viewing political parties, do you find that people now view the political system as having a two-party or two-coalition system, but do people see it as Pakatan or do they still see it in terms of DAP, PKR, PAS?

B: People are beginning to see it as Pakatan; it’s quite clear. They identify Pakatan as a political bloc in opposition to the BN.

TEM: So when you say that people tend to vote for party as opposed to individual, you’re talking about one coalition versus another?

B: I think we’re moving in that direction very fast. But the events that are happening in Perak right now, the people are now looking at Pakatan as opposed to PAS or whatever.

TEM: They see it as Pakatan versus BN.

H: Yes, and I think you can see in Kuala Terengganu, the Pakatan leaders campaigned as one, as Pakatan.

B: So when we run our polls, we don’t have to explain to people what is Pakatan Rakyat anymore. That’s what we are finding. People just immediately recognise it.

TEM: Was it quite a fast transformation?

B: Yes, I think within three months, people caught it.

TEM: Three months after March 8?

B: By June or July people can understand there is this coalition, Pakatan Rakyat, as opposed to Barisan Alternatif, which people just didn’t get it for some reason.

TEM: But why do you think that it is so? Is it just because of the numbers?

B: One is the numbers, but number two is like Anwar, because he is such a presence, he has a presence there and he sort of, to quote Wong Chin Huat in his recent article, he is the coalition, he is the person that holds all of these differing parties together.

TEM: If he’s not around for whatever reason, would people still view Pakatan as Pakatan or... ?

B: It depends on when something like this happens, if let’s say for some reason he no longer runs or is removed from the picture, then I think it is very difficult for the coalition to, kind of, hold.

TEM: So he’s still the glue?

B: People still see him as the glue but maybe over time if things start to consolidate and some kind of real unity actually binds them together than that becomes a permanent feature in people’s minds. But I think right now he’s the glue that keeps it together.