Li Keqiang Index reveals downturn in China’s economy is moderating, says NAB’s Tan
27 May 2016, 10:10 am
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Christy Tan, the bank’s head of strategy and research for Asia

The Chinese economy is in better shape than many economists infer, if a new index formulated by National Australia Bank (NAB) proves as reliable as its originator suggests. Based on a methodology outlined initially by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, the index shows the risk of a hard landing is diminishing for Asia’s largest economy even as structural reforms are undertaken by the Chinese government.

As head of the State Council of China, Li has been chief administrator of government machinery since March 2013. When he was provincial secretary of the Communist Party of China in Liaoning, he reportedly told a foreign dignitary in 2007 that his preferred measure of economic growth was to look at the rate of power consumption, growth in bank lending and volume of rail freight in the province.

Economists at NAB have used these indicators to construct a so-called Li Keqiang (LKQ) Index to obtain an independent measure of the Chinese economy as doubt lingers over the quality of official data published there. Christy Tan, the bank’s head of strategy and research for Asia, says the index offers an alternative means of verifying the trends indicated by Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) issued by various sources every month.

 

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