(Jan 13): Iron ore imports by China surged to a record above 1 billion tonnes last year as unexpectedly strong steel production and lower local mine output combined to fire up demand in the world’s top buyer for cargoes from Australia and Brazil, supporting a rebound in prices.
Asia’s top economy imported 1.024 billion tonnes in 2016, up 7.5% from a year earlier, according to customs data issued on Friday: that’s about 32 tonnes a second, according to Bloomberg calculations. Purchases last month totalled about 89 million tonnes, compared with 96.3 million tonnes a year earlier.
Iron ore surged more than 80% last year as China added stimulus to sustain economic growth, bolstering steel production, soaking up rising low-cost mine supply and shredding bears’ forecasts. The outlook depends on the country’s ability to absorb even greater volumes, with Australia’s government among those seeing little scope for gains, while others see the potential for a further increase. Seaborne supply may expand again this year as Brazil’s Vale SA starts up production at its giant S11D project.
Imports should “continue to rise through 2017,” Justin Smirk, a senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp, said in an e-mail before the data. “It is all about supply, the supply of ore in the seaborne trade from both Australia and Brazil, as well as some of the smaller producers, continues to grow and as such, will continue to enter the Chinese markets.”
Iron ore with 62% content delivered to Qingdao, which hit a two-year high of US$83.58 a dry tonne last month, was at US$80.99 on Thursday, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd data. On Friday, futures in Asia were mixed as the SGX AsiaClear contract for May delivery added 0.3% while Dalian prices fell.
‘Growing again’
Westpac’s Smirk cautioned prices may slip even as imports continue to rise as “rather than suggesting that demand for imported ore is strong, I would argue to suggest that supply is growing again,” he said. Without a solid lift in demand, there may be a correction in prices through 2017, he warned.
Australia, the world’s largest exporter, forecast this month that prices may drop back amid a leveling off in demand for cargoes in China and rising supply. The country may purchase 1.047 billion tonnes this year and 1.049 billion tonnes in 2018, the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science estimated.
A survey of industry participants by Singapore Exchange Ltd, which offers iron ore futures, was more positive. Consensus opinion is that Chinese imports will continue to increase in 2017, as will seaborne trade overall, the exchange said in a report this month, with a majority seeing prices holding steady or rising.
As China’s imports of ore have ballooned to a record, so too have holdings at the country’s ports, which have hit an all-time high. The stockpiles surged 2.4% to 116.7 million tonnes last week, according to Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co.
Brazil’s Vale is due start commercial output this month from S11D, the world’s biggest iron ore project. A decade in the making, the US$14 billion mine located on the fringes of the Amazon in Para state will ramp up to annual capacity of 90 million tonnes by 2020.