This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on December 26, 2022 - January 1, 2023

The 16th Yang di-Pertuan Agong

Yang di-Pertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah showed just how important the role of the constitutional monarch is in Malaysia’s political system, especially during a political impasse.

The King’s advice to coalition leaders to consider forming a unity government was a crucial factor in ending the uncertainty that clouded the national political situation after GE15 resulted in a hung parliament.

Now that the political uncertainty has somewhat abated with the appointment of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as the head of an inclusive coalition government, it is important to remember that the holding of the snap election in November was accompanied by serious misgivings about the continuing political turmoil that the country had faced since the aborted transfer of power from the seventh prime minister, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, to Anwar, despite an agreement prior to GE14.

The King’s emphatic stand after GE15 that the Barisan Nasional coalition should be part of the unity government instead of staying out of a multi-ethnic government was another decisive step that would help bridge the divide between Malay-Muslim parties and non-Muslim groups in the country — checking a worrisome trend in inter-communal relations over the past decade.

The moral authority that the Yang Di Pertuan Agong holds in the eyes of Malaysians and his constitutional power were employed by Al-Sultan Abdullah to end the post-GE15 stalemate and point the country towards a new government that is inclusive of all communities and regions. His action was also supported by the Conference of Rulers.

Perhaps at no other time in the nation’s history has the role of the constitutional monarch in deciding who will lead the government been so decisive as in GE15. Al-Sultan Abdullah had found himself in that position once before — when the government led by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad collapsed in February 2020 — but subsequent events showed that political stability would prove elusive with the country having three prime ministers in three years.

All eyes will be on whether the King’s choice this time around can contain the forces of identity politics and provide Malaysia with some much-needed political stability until GE16. — By Rash Behari Bhattacharjee

Prime Minister, FInance Minister and chairman of Pakatan Harapan

Very few people knew what was going on behind the scenes among the four main political parties in the five days after GE15.

Despite having the most seats in parliament, Pakatan Harapan (PH) chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim did not appear to be heading towards the prime ministership in Putrajaya. Instead, the leading candidate on Sunday, a day after GE15, was Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, which had fewer seats than PH but had the support of parties from Sabah and Sarawak.

The first sure sign of Anwar becoming prime minister emerged three days after GE15. On Tuesday morning, Nov 22, the Sarawak and Sabah parties announced that they had moved away from PN. The following day, Barisan Nasional (BN) also threw its support behind Anwar and, on Nov 24, he became the 10th prime minister.

A month later, the 75-year-old Anwar had hammered out an agreement with BN and the parties from Sabah and Sarawak to muster the support of 147 MPs. On the first day of parliament on Dec 19, he sailed through a motion of confidence.

If anybody had thought that the biggest challenge for Anwar would be the five days after Nov 19, when his claim to the prime ministership had been put to the test, they would be wrong. His next task is to craft a budget, taking into consideration that federal government revenue is expected to be lower than what was anticipated earlier.

Budget 2023, amounting to RM372.3 billion, was tabled in the first week of October by the Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob-led government before parliament was dissolved on Oct 10. The budget was based on crude oil at US$90 per barrel. Now, crude oil, which makes up just above 20% of federal government revenue for 2023, is at US$79 per barrel. Going forward, all indications point to crude oil sliding lower.

In relation to government finances, Anwar does not have much room to manoeuvre. He takes over the reins of a country that has a growing operating expenditure, a sticky subsidy payment structure and rising debt service charges due to the government’s ballooning borrowings.

The higher interest rate regime will only accentuate the debt servicing charges, which is the second largest component in the federal government’s operating expenditure.

Since 1999, the federal government has been running a deficit in its annual budget — during good and bad times. The six prime ministers before Anwar ran budget deficits, which proved to be costly during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.

During those two years, the government allocated a total of RM530 billion in 11 stimulus packages to keep the economy afloat. Even after the economy had opened up from March 2022, the government continued with some subsidies, such as a cheaper electricity tariff, so as not to disturb the equilibrium.

The difficult decisions of implementing reforms in government finances such as cutting subsidies and widening the tax base to ensure a sustainable federal government revenue structure now falls in the hands of Anwar.

Total federal government revenue as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) declined from 21.4% in 2012 to 15.9% in 2020, underlining the gradual deterioration of the economy due to leakages in government spending, ineffective tax incentives and the lack of resolve to implement a tax system that captures the informal economy.

Anwar will need to take some of the difficult measures sooner rather than later, which will be unpopular. The consolation is Anwar has five years to fix the problems, provided he can keep his working relationship with his new political alliances intact. — By M Shanmugam

Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Rural and Regional Development and Umno president

Even the harshest critics of Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi are in awe of his manoeuvring, political strategy and unorthodox tactics, which have pushed Umno to its current position of power.

The Umno-led Barisan Nasional coalition won only 30 of the 178 seats contested in GE15, its worst showing ever, and while many in his party were asking him to step down and accept the blame for the bad performance, Zahid hung on to his position as party president of Umno, sacked many of the dissenting voices, got appointed deputy premier and snagged the important position of minister of rural and regional development — all this while facing 35 charges for money laundering and criminal breach of trust involving millions of ringgit from Yayasan Akalbudi, and for accepting bribes for various projects during his term as home minister.

In September this year, barely two months before GE15, Zahid was acquitted of 33 charges of receiving bribes of RM42 million from Ultra Kirana Sdn Bhd (UKSB) to extend its foreign visa system for Chinese nationals, and seven other charges involving RM3 million, S$1.15 million, CHF15,000 and US$15,000 from UKSB as well, when he was home minister, as the prosecution failed to establish a prima facie case against him.

Zahid’s ace up his sleeve has been his supposed closeness to current premier Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, which is said to have started in the 1970s when the two were student activists at Universiti Malaya, and rekindled when Zahid was Umno Youth chief and Anwar the deputy premier in the late 1990s.

Considering Zahid received much flak from the likes of Khairy Jamaluddin — the popular former Umno Youth chief and previous minister of health — and was openly critiqued by Pakatan Harapan leaders for his alleged corruption, it is a wonder that he managed to retain his Bagan Datuk constituency, albeit by a slim 348-vote majority.

In the run-up to the election, Zahid dropped several big names aligned to the previous premier Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob — including Arau MP Datuk Seri Shahidan Kassim, who stood and won on a Perikatan Nasional ticket; former Ketereh MP and recently sacked Umno Ketereh division head Tan Sri Annuar Musa; former Tanjong Karang MP Tan Sri Noh Omar; and former Pasir Salak MP Datuk Seri Tajuddin Abdul Rahman.

Dropped candidates such as Shahidan; Datuk Zahidi Zainul Abidin, who was deputy minister of communications and multimedia; Datuk Seri Ismail Abd Muttalib, former deputy minister of housing and local government; and senator Datuk Azhar Ahmad were sacked from Umno for contesting under other party banners.

While the infighting probably led to Umno’s poor showing in GE15, Zahid seems to have come out the winner, largely unscathed.

In a special general assembly in May, Umno members amended its constitution, allowing party elections to be held no more than six months after a general election, which gives Zahid time to consolidate his position. — By Jose Barrock

Premier of Sarawak and chairman of Gabungan Parti Sarawak

Sarawak Premier Tan Sri Abang Johari Openg led Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) to victory during GE15, bagging 23 out of the 31 parliamentary seats being contested.

As the biggest state in the country, Sarawak has its influence in the general elections — a kingmaker in the country’s political landscape.

In GE15, Abang Johari was negotiating not only for Sarawak but also Sabah, after Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) leader and Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Seri Panglima Hajiji Noor agreed to form the Borneo Bloc with GPS.

The Borneo Bloc had initially supported Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s Perikatan Nasional coalition. It received public flak, however, owing to concerns about the prospect of an Islamist federal government ruling over the Christian-majority Sarawak.

By then, Abang Johari said he would leave the matter of who the 10th prime minister should be in the hands of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah.

GPS was willing to work with any party, with the exception of DAP, a major component party in Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition.

This led to current DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke Siew Fook extending an olive branch when he made a courtesy call on Abang Johari in Kuching and publicly apologised for the party’s previous missteps that had offended the Sarawak government and its people. This was followed through by DAP’s chairman Lim Guan Eng himself, who apologised to Sarawakians on social media. In response, Abang Johari said GPS accepted the apology offered with an open heart, as DAP was also willing to admit its mistakes.

When the King finally came to the decision to appoint Anwar to lead the unity government, Abang Johari quickly shifted his support to PH, winning Sarawak the appointment of GPS’ Datuk Seri Fadillah Yusof as deputy prime minister and four other ministers in the unity government.

With Fadillah as DPM, Abang Johari will push to expedite talks on the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63). A significant issue concerns the state’s share of oil royalty and tax revenue collected by the federal government.

Subsequently, Abang Johari proposed the setting up of a trust fund to regulate federal government funds approved for Sarawak to reduce bureaucracy.

He had established state-owned oil and gas exploration company Petroleum Sarawak Bhd (Petros) in August 2017. With this, Sarawak commenced regulating the state’s own upstream oil and gas activities under the Sarawak Oil Mining Ordinance 1958 (OMO).

For all his efforts in leading Sarawak to victory in GE15, pushing for the MA63 agenda and setting up Petros and the state’s own sovereign fund, Abang Johari is certainly a newsmaker this year and a personality to watch in 2023. — By Isabelle Francis

Transport Minister and DAP secretary-general

Anthony Loke Siew Fook inherited the mantle of DAP secretary-general from Lim Guan Eng in March, when Pakatan Harapan was still struggling to find its footing — as evidenced by the trashing it got in the Johor state election — following the 2020 Sheraton coup that led to the collapse of the PH administration.

Therefore, DAP’s prospects going into GE15 did not seem bright, with Loke expected to have a hard time keeping DAP’s 42 seats in Dewan Rakyat, the most the party has won. The reputation for brashness that his predecessor left behind was also seen as a stumbling block. The general sentiment was that DAP would be fortunate if it managed to keep 30 seats.

But Loke, who wanted to bring “a different perspective, a different approach”, as he told The Edge in an interview a month ahead of GE15, managed to lead the party to retain not just 30 but 40 seats.

He also played an instrumental role in helping Parti Keadilan Rakyat leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim secure the premiership in the resultant hung parliament post-GE15, by personally flying to Kuching to make amends with Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) leaders, who had said they would not cooperate with PH, stating that they had not forgotten how DAP treated Sarawak leaders when PH was in Putrajaya. Following Loke’s apology, made directly to GPS chairman Tan Sri Abang Johari Openg at the latter’s home, DAP chairman Lim posted a similar apology on his Facebook page. Subsequently, GPS agreed to join the Anwar-led unity government.

When DAP garnered only four ministerial posts in Anwar’s cabinet despite being the PH party with the most seats won, Loke was quick to explain that DAP had given its unconditional support to Anwar with no promise of any cabinet posts. In fact, it had been ready to sacrifice itself if it were to be a “stumbling block” in the formation of an Anwar-led government.

Loke, who remained focused and resolute on his GE15 goal “to win for DAP, to win for PH”, certainly delivered.

Given his steadfastness — and the professionalism he showed during his previous tenure as minister — it is not surprising many cheered his return to helm the Ministry of Transport, including the Keretapi Tanah Melayu Bhd Employees Union, who had called for his reappointment. — By Tan Choe Choe

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